📖 Overview
Use this calculator to evaluate jail strategy based on board danger and movement upside.
🧪 Example Scenarios
Use these default and higher-pressure example inputs to explore how sensitive this calculator is before using your real numbers.
| Input | Base Case | Higher Pressure Case |
|---|---|---|
| Bail Cost ($) | 50 | 60 |
| Expected Net Value Per Moving Turn ($) | 35 | 40.25 |
| Expected Per Turn Jail Protection Value ($) | 22 | 25.3 |
| Turns Remaining In Jail Window | 3 | 3.45 |
⚙️ How It Works
Compares expected value of paying bail now versus staying in jail for the remaining decision window.
The Formula
Pay-now EV = -Bail + (Move EV * Turns) | Stay EV = Jail Protection EV * Turns
| Bail | Cash cost to leave jail immediately |
| Move EV | Expected net gain/loss per turn when moving freely |
| Jail Protection EV | Expected per-turn value of staying jailed (avoided rent risk) |
| Turns | Remaining turns in your jail decision window |
💡In late game, staying in jail can be optimal if board rent risk is high and your mobility value is low.
Quick Reference
| Input | Example Value |
|---|---|
| Bail Cost ($) | 50 |
| Expected Net Value Per Moving Turn ($) | 35 |
| Expected Per Turn Jail Protection Value ($) | 22 |
| Turns Remaining In Jail Window | 3 |
When To Use This
- Use this tool when you need a fast decision during active planning or execution.
- Use this before committing money, time, or tradeoffs that are hard to reverse.
- Use this to compare options using the same assumptions across scenarios.
Edge Cases To Watch
- Results can be misleading if key inputs are missing, stale, or unrealistic.
- Very small or very large values may amplify rounding effects and interpretation risk.
- If assumptions change mid-decision, recalculate before acting.
Practical Tips
💡 Recalculate when key houses/hotels are bought or sold.
💡 Use conservative EV assumptions if board state is volatile.
💡 Run a best-case, base-case, and worst-case scenario before deciding.
💡 Use recent real values, not ideal assumptions, for better accuracy.
Frequently Asked Questions
❓ Should I always pay bail early?
No. In dangerous late-game boards, jail can be strategically valuable.
❓ What does EV mean here?
Expected value: average net outcome under your current assumptions.