📖 Overview
This calculator models short term rental arbitrage with seasonal pricing and turnover drag.
It helps operators understand true monthly margin and break even occupancy levels.
🧪 Example Scenarios
Use these default and higher-pressure example inputs to explore how sensitive this calculator is before using your real numbers.
| Input | Base Case | Higher Pressure Case |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly Rent Plus Utilities ($) | 2,600 | 2,990 |
| Cleaning Cost Per Turnover ($) | 85 | 102 |
| Occupancy Rate (%) | 68 | 81.6 |
| High Season Nightly Rate ($) | 210 | 252 |
| Low Season Nightly Rate ($) | 138 | 165.6 |
⚙️ How It Works
Models arbitrage monthly profit with seasonality by blending high and low nightly rates and subtracting fixed and turnover cleaning costs.
The Formula
Net Profit = (Booked Nights × Weighted Nightly Rate) − Fixed Cost − Cleaning Cost
| Fixed Cost | Monthly rent and utilities combined |
| Cleaning/Turnover | Cleaning spend per guest turnover |
| Occupancy | Booked-night percentage of total month |
| High Season Rate | Average nightly rate in peak season |
| Low Season Rate | Average nightly rate in low season |
💡This calculator is scenario-based. Better input quality leads to better decision quality.
⚠️Revenue is sensitive to local regulation demand swings and platform policy changes. Use conservative assumptions before signing leases.
Quick Reference
| Occupancy | Weighted Rate | Fixed Costs | Margin Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | $150 | $2,600 | Tight |
| 68% | $170 | $2,600 | Workable |
| 80% | $190 | $2,600 | Strong |
When To Use This
- Use this tool when you need a fast decision during active planning or execution.
- Use this before committing money, time, or tradeoffs that are hard to reverse.
- Use this to compare options using the same assumptions across scenarios.
Edge Cases To Watch
- Results can be misleading if key inputs are missing, stale, or unrealistic.
- Very small or very large values may amplify rounding effects and interpretation risk.
- If assumptions change mid-decision, recalculate before acting.
Practical Tips
💡 Model downside occupancy first before optimistic scenarios.
💡 Track cleaning frequency and average stay length monthly.
💡 Stress test seasonality with realistic off-peak pricing.
Frequently Asked Questions
❓ Why use weighted seasonal rate?
Because annual profitability depends on both high and low season distribution not peak rate alone.
❓ What breaks arbitrage models most often?
Overestimated occupancy and underestimated fixed obligations.